Peru: Resilient Growth Offsets El Niño Headwinds in 2026GLOBAL ECONOMICS

Key arguments

• GDP growth forecast for 2026 cut to 3.2% from 3.5% due to an 'Extraordinary' Coastal El Niño, expected to reduce primary sector output by nearly 2% and shave about 1pp off GDP.
• Non-primary sectors are forecast to grow 4.5%, driven by post-election confidence, record new home sales in Lima and all-time high vehicle sales, plus formal job creation and rising real wages.
• Fishing sector to contract 27.1% as anchoveta catch falls to 1.5 million tons (-65%), the lowest since 1998, also hitting primary manufacturing (-6.8%).
• Construction (+9.3%) and commerce (+5.5%) lead growth, supported by private investment, employment gains, and consumer credit; mining remains flat (0.0%) due to no major new projects.

Corresponding source evidence

1. This is already having a greater negative impact on primary sectors so far this year and is expected to cause these sectors collectively to contract by nearly 2% in 2026, compared to our previous forecast of a 0.7% decline. · 2026
2. However, we maintain our forecast of approximately 4.5% growth for non-primary sectors linked to domestic demand, driven by improved business and consumer confidence following the presidential runoff election in June.
3. The expansion of formal employment, supported by double-digit private investment growth, rising real wages (despite a rebound in inflation), and positive trends in consumer credit are boosting sectors such as construction, commerce, and services.