秘鲁：2026年韧性增长抵消厄尔尼诺不利因素全球经济研究

关键论点

• 因“异常”沿海厄尔尼诺，2026年GDP增长预测从3.5%下调至3.2%，预计初级部门产出收缩近2%，拖累GDP约1个百分点。
• 非初级部门预计增长4.5%，得益于大选后信心改善、利马新房销售创纪录和全国汽车销售历史新高，以及正规就业增加和实际工资上涨。
• 渔业部门将收缩27.1%，因鳀鱼捕获量降至150万吨（-65%），为1998年以来最低，并冲击初级制造业（-6.8%）。
• 建筑业（+9.3%）和商业（+5.5%）领涨，受私人投资、就业增长和消费信贷支撑；矿业因无重大新项目而持平（0.0%）。

对应原文证据

1. This is already having a greater negative impact on primary sectors so far this year and is expected to cause these sectors collectively to contract by nearly 2% in 2026, compared to our previous forecast of a 0.7% decline. · 2026
2. However, we maintain our forecast of approximately 4.5% growth for non-primary sectors linked to domestic demand, driven by improved business and consumer confidence following the presidential runoff election in June.
3. The expansion of formal employment, supported by double-digit private investment growth, rising real wages (despite a rebound in inflation), and positive trends in consumer credit are boosting sectors such as construction, commerce, and services.