拉丁美洲周刊：地区CPI、智利央行和秘鲁央行或将按兵不动

关键论点

• 智利8月总体通胀率可能从7月的3.5%同比回升至3.8%，受食品价格上涨推动。
• 预计智利央行将维持4.50%的政策利率不变，在通胀风险与疲弱增长之间权衡。
• 预计秘鲁央行将连续第十二个月维持4.25%的参考利率不变。
• 秘鲁8月通胀率达到4.4%同比，创三年新高，但被视为暂时性供给冲击。
• 墨西哥最低工资上调支持了家庭收入，但正规就业增长放缓。
• 巴西8月总体通胀率预计小幅降至4.3%左右，央行有降息空间。
• 哥伦比亚8月总体通胀率预计升至6.2%左右，核心通胀率升至6.3%。

对应原文证据

1. we believe the central bank will slash its 2026 growth rate projection of 1 -1.75% (June MPR) to 0.25 -0.75%. · 2026
2. The upward revision of the average annual GDP growth forecast for 2028–2030 from 3.2% to 4.0%, driven primarily by strong private investment. · 2028-2030
3. Our year-end inflation forecast stands at 4.2%. It was recently confirmed that the El Niño phenomenon will reach a strong intensity during the summer and the probability of it being extraordinary has increased significantly, which would generate upward pressures toward the end of the year. For the time being, we expect the policy interest rate to remain at 4.25% throughout the year, provided that price fluctuations continue to be transitory. · end-2026