GLOBAL ECONOMICSTHE GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD
中文标题
全球经济学 · 全球下周展望
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Scotiabank's week-ahead preview centres on a heavy central bank calendar: the RBA is widely expected to raise its cash rate 25bps, the BoE to lift Bank Rate to 4%, and Sweden's Riksbank to hike to 2% on roughly 70% market odds. Banxico is seen holding at 6.5%, Brazil's Selic at 13.75%, Norges Bank's deposit rate at 4.5% and Malaysia's overnight rate at 2.75%. US midterms, an expected renewed Iran flare-up, nonfarm payrolls and Canada's budget are also flagged.
- Institution
- Scotiabank Economics
- Published
- 10/30/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation
- Time horizon
- 2026 · 2018 · 2025
Key arguments
- RBA hike is widely anticipated, backed by hawkish guidance warning inflation readings were too high and hotter than the August outlook.
- BoE is seen hiking 25bps to 4% as confidence in looking through a transitory energy shock has waned amid second-round pass-through concerns.
- Riksbank pricing is strong but the timing is contested: 70% odds of a hike now versus December for 30bps cumulative tightening.
- Banxico hawks stay alert as energy prices rise and the peso has depreciated over 10% versus the USD since September.
Key numbers
- RBA expected cash rate hike
- 25bps
- BoE expected Bank Rate
- 4%
- Riksbank expected policy rate / hike odds
- 2% / 70%
- Banxico expected overnight rate
- 6.5%
- Brazil Selic expected
- 13.75%
Main risks
- Upside inflation risks from energy prices and sharp currency depreciation (peso, real) could force more tightening than priced.
- Renewed Iran conflict shortly after the US midterms could disrupt markets and energy costs.
- Canada's investment-focused budget faces near-term capacity constraints and execution risk, alongside widening deficits.
Corresponding source evidence
GLOBAL ECONOMICS THE GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD October 30, 2026 • US midterms —will the pundits be correct?
· 20265 • RBA —A Buck and a Quarter 5 • BCB —The Lula Effect 5–6 • Banxico —Inflation Hawks Likely to Dominate 6 • Riksbank —Are You the One?
THE GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD October 30, 2026 Global Economics 2 Checks and Balances Buckets of sweat will be dripping from pollsters over whether they’ve called Tuesday’s US midterm elections correctly.
· 2026
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Scotiabank Economics on 10/30/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/31/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction