Tesla earnings the median says small the average says big What do options price

中文标题

特斯拉财报：中位数显示小幅波动，平均值显示大幅波动，期权定价如何？

Saxo Bank10/19/2026updated 10/19/2026

Unknown economy

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Tesla reports Q3 2026 results after the 21 October close, with deliveries already known at 486,532 vehicles. Across eight post-October-2024 reports, the median next-day move was about 4.5% and the average about 7.8%, lifted by a 21.9% rise and a 14.5% fall. With shares near 362, the 23 October at-the-money straddle implies a roughly 7.5% move, between about 335 and 390. The author frames the choice as which history to trust, not direction, and presents an iron condor and a long strangle as illustrations only.

Institution: Saxo Bank
Published: 10/19/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: October 2026 · July 2026

Key arguments

Median (about 4.5%) and average (about 7.8%) moves are both correct but answer different questions.
Option prices imply a move near the average; part of that premium pays for ordinary days before expiry.
The iron condor profits if the reaction stays inside roughly 9% either way, as six of eight past reactions did.
The long strangle needs a move beyond roughly 8% either way; only the two large reactions and the 8.2% July 2025 fall did so.

Key numbers

Q3 2026 deliveries: 486,532 vehicles
Median next-day move (8 reports): ~4.5%
Average next-day move (8 reports): ~7.8%
Priced move (23 Oct straddle): ~7.5% (27.02 at shares ~362)
Priced range: ~335-390

Main risks

Commissions and bid/ask spreads apply to every leg, and larger structures need multiple orders.
Tesla reports after the close, so the first reaction occurs in extended hours before most positions can be adjusted.
Short legs are American-style and carry early-assignment risk if they move into the money.

Corresponding source evidence

Tesla will publish its third-quarter 2026 results after the US market close on Wednesday 21 October 2026, with a webcast at 23:30 CEST. · October 2026
The strikes follow two simple rules, both based on the priced range above: • Iron condor: sell the strikes nearest the edges of the priced range (335 and 390), and buy protection about half the priced move further out (322.5 and 402.5).
• Long strangle: buy strikes about half the priced move away from the share price (350 and 375).

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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