市场快评 - 黄金跌破 4，十年期突破 525

关键论点

• 美债收益率全线上行是金价主要压力，10年期实际收益率升至约2.9%的18年高位。
• 特朗普拒绝伊朗重开霍尔木兹海峡的提议，维持石油供应中断担忧，但沙特管道恢复出口或缓解现货紧张。
• 股市普遍下跌，英伟达创纪录1500亿美元回购是例外，Meta、特斯拉和AMD领跌。
• 欧洲央行与英国官员均提示能源驱动的通胀，拉加德称2027-2028年预测上调，市场预计到2027年底欧洲央行加息约100个基点。

对应原文证据

1. UK shop price inflation slowed to 1.4% year on year in September from 1.5%, with food inflation at 2.5% on meat and dairy promotions, though the British Retail Consortium warned retailers cannot keep absorbing rising costs; UK CPI was 3.1% in August and is expected to exceed 4% in early 2027 as the conflict lifts energy prices. · 2027
2. • ECB President Lagarde said 2027 and 2028 inflation forecasts have risen on higher energy prices, with no sign yet of energy costs feeding wages, and called for a measured policy response. · 2027
3. After the close Jefferies beat with Q3 EPS of USD 1.08 against about USD 1.00 expected on revenue of USD 2.22bn, but asset management revenue more than halved and the shares slipped around 3%.