OCBC 每日信用快照 2026年9月28日

关键论点

• 贸易休战延长至1月10日，对约300亿美元非敏感商品互降关税；中国承诺2027和2028年每年至少进口1000万吨美国煤炭。
• 美国国债收益率创数十年高位，受“经济强劲、通胀顽固”叙事推动；8月核心资本品订单环比增1.6%，密歇根大学一年期通胀预期升至4.6%。
• 澳洲联储预计加息25个基点至4.60%，因核心通胀持续、内需有韧性，且主席布洛克警告能源通胀风险。
• 信用利差走阔：美国投资级+3个基点至80个基点，高收益+12个基点至294个基点，亚洲美元高收益+15个基点至331个基点。

对应原文证据

1. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has warned that the fiscal deficit and publicly held debt could rise to 14% and 222% of GDP, respectively, by 2056. · 2056
2. The RBA meets tomorrow and is widely expected to raise rates by 25bp to 4.60%, given persistent core inflation, resilient domestic demand, and Governor Bullock's warning that energy-related inflation risks may be materialising.
3. Investors will be monitoring a series of key US releases, including JOLTS job openings, ADP employment, personal income and spending, and core PCE inflation (consensus: 0.3% m/m), culminating in Friday's nonfarm payrolls report (consensus: around 100k) and unemployment rate (consensus: 4.2%).