每日国债展望 · 摘要

关键论点

• 市场普遍预期澳洲联储加息25个基点至4.60%，因核心通胀顽固、内需有韧性，且行长布洛克警告能源相关通胀风险可能正在显现。
• 特朗普与习近平峰会延长贸易休战两个月并设立贸易委员会和AI对话，但象征意义大于实质突破，稀土问题仍未解决。
• 美国本周数据密集，周五非农就业报告为焦点；通胀顽固叠加经济强劲，推动10年期和30年期收益率升至2007年和2004年以来最高。
• 泰国8月出口增速加快至同比增长24.3%，商务部5-11%的预测可能被上调。

对应原文证据

1. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has warned that the fiscal deficit and publicly held debt could rise to 14% and 222% of GDP, respectively, by 2056. · 2056
2. The RBA meets tomorrow and is widely expected to raise rates by 25bp to 4.60%, given persistent core inflation, resilient domestic demand, and Governor Bullock's warning that energy-related inflation risks may be materialising.
3. Investors will be monitoring a series of key US releases, including JOLTS job openings, ADP employment, personal income and spending, and core PCE inflation (consensus: 0.3% MoM), culminating in Friday's nonfarm payrolls report (consensus: around 100k) and unemployment rate (consensus: 4.2%).