央行重新校准货币政策

关键论点

• 全球加息周期是延续而非开启，因多数政策利率已接近或高于中性，且通胀多为成本推动型。
• 野村预计美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行、英国央行、加拿大央行、澳大利亚、印度和韩国的加息次数均少于市场。
• 美国增长因企业投资和消费保持强劲，核心PCE高于3%，通胀风险偏向上行。
• 日本核心CPI到2028年分三阶段走向约2%，第二阶段决定日本央行终端利率。

对应原文证据

1. We expect the Fed to deliver another hike in December.
2. We see Japan’s core CPI evolving in three stages towards 2028, with the second critical in determining the terminal policy rate. · 2028
3. With sticky in flation and a renewed rise in oil prices, we have incorporated additional rate hikes into our global monetary policy forecasts, though still signi ficantly fewer than what markets are pricing.