Natixis US Rates Technical Chartbook - September 14, 2026
中文标题
Natixis 美国利率技术图表书 - 2026年9月14日
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
Natixis US rates technicals flag a significant breakdown in the 5s30s curve, with the next chart target at 39bps and 50% retrace/100% extension confluence at 39.1bps. 2yr yields have broken the 4.54% retracement with little support until 5.04% (April 2024 highs). 10yr yields hold above 4.75%-4.83%; 5.02% (2023 highs) is the next critical support. 5yr swap spreads remain range-bound; 5yr inflation swaps look overbought but not yet broken. 2s10s holds some shorter-term support.
- Institution
- Natixis
- Published
- 09/14/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation
- Time horizon
- 2026
Key arguments
- 5s30s has broken down technically, with the next chart target at 39bps, coinciding with the 50% retrace of 2023-2025 steepening (39.1bps) and 100% extension of the flattening trend.
- 2yr yields broke the important 4.54% retracement and have little support until 5.04%, with the rising channel broken negatively.
- 10yr yields are above 4.75% and the 4.81%-4.83% zone; 5.02% (2023 intraday high) is the next critical support.
- 2s10s is holding shorter-term support even as 5s30s does not; 5yr swap spreads bounced off retracement supports but show no upside breakout.
Key numbers
- 5s30s next chart target
- 39bps
- 5s30s 50% retrace / 100% extension
- 39.1bps
- 2yr broken retracement level
- 4.54%
- 2yr next major support (April 2024 highs)
- 5.04%
- 10yr next critical support (2023 highs)
- 5.02%
Main risks
- 2s10s holding shorter-term support could stabilize the curve complex, limiting further 5s30s downside.
- 5yr swap spreads bounced off retracement supports; a breakout could shift rates technicals.
- 5yr inflation swaps look overbought, but haven't technically broken down, leaving room for extension higher.
Corresponding source evidence
Chart of the Week #2 – 2yr Yields Monthly 3 NATIXIS US RATES TECHNICAL CHARTBOOK –ALL SOURCES BLOOMBERG, NATIXIS I’m showing this chart as well because as you will see on the next page, there isn’t much in the way of support until 5.04%, having broken over the important 4.54% retracement level.
If 5.416% 100% extension can hold they have a chance.
Resistance: (1) -26bps: Recent highs (2) -24.3bps: 2026 highs (3) -22.4bps: 2024 highs (not shown) 5yr Zero Coupon Inflation Swaps Support: (1) 2.50%: Daily trendline (2) 2.45%: Cluster of daily lows (3) 2.31%: Multiple lows 11 NATIXIS US RATES TECHNICAL CHARTBOOK –ALL SOURCES BLOOMBERG, NATIXIS Rally continued off prior weekly hammer pattern but failed at the 38.2% retracement at 2.617%.
· 2026
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by Natixis on 09/14/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction