Natixis Colombia Outlook

中文标题

Natixis 哥伦比亚展望

Natixis08/28/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Natixis expects Colombia's 2026 GDP growth at 2.8% and 2027 at 2.9%, boosted by reconstruction after the August 2026 earthquake. Inflation is forecast at 6.6% in 2026, above target, with risks from El Niño. Fiscal deficit is seen widening to 7.2% of GDP in 2026 and 9.4% in 2027, while policy rate is expected to peak at 12.00% before easing to 10.75% in 2027. COP is expected to remain strong in the near term, then gradually depreciate to 3800 by end-2027.

Institution: Natixis
Published: 08/28/2026
Research topic: Inflation · Colombia CPI · Fiscal
Time horizon: 2026-12-31 · 2027-06-30 · 2027-12-31 · 2026-08-31

Key arguments

Reconstruction after the earthquake will drive strong growth in 2027-2028, shifting composition from government spending to investment.
Fiscal deficit will widen due to reconstruction, but government spending cuts of about 1.3% of GDP are a positive effort.
Inflation is forecast at 6.6% in 2026, above target, driven by minimum wage hike and Iran conflict, with El Niño risks ahead.
The central bank is likely to keep policy rate at 12.00% as terminal rate, given strong COP and restrictive stance.
COP to remain strong for the rest of 2026 due to high carry and weak dollar, then gradually depreciate as central bank and government buy dollars.

Key numbers

2026 GDP growth: 2.8%
2027 GDP growth: 2.9%
2026 CPI: 6.6%
2026 fiscal deficit: -7.2% of GDP
2027 fiscal deficit: -9.4% of GDP
2026 policy rate: 12.00%
2027 policy rate: 10.75%
2026 USDCOP: 3150

Main risks

El Niño could push inflation higher in late 2026 and H1 2027 through higher electricity and food prices.
Larger-than-expected fiscal deficits could increase debt-to-GDP, mainly in 2027.
Reconstruction costs may exceed government estimates, leading to more fiscal strain.
COP depreciation could be faster than forecast if the central bank and government buy dollars aggressively.

Corresponding source evidence

Largely driven by the 23% increase in the minimum wage and the conflict in Iran, we currently forecast inflation at 6.6% in 2026, above the target range. · 2026-12-31
Going forward, El Niño could push inflation higher in late 2026 and H1 2027 through higher electricity and food prices. · 2027-06-30
However, it is important to emphasize the government’s effort to cut spending by about 1.3% of GDP, which is equivalent to past fiscal reforms. · 2027-12-31

Conditions / invalidation

If El Niño occurs.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.