巴西 – 选举调查结果

关键论点

• 卢拉获胜主要被视为财政风险，而非制度或货币风险。
• 弗拉维奥·博索纳罗获胜总体被视为更利好雷亚尔，10月底预期中值为4.87。
• 博索纳罗情景并非无风险：担忧集中于政策执行、与国会和最高法院的摩擦。
• 多数受访者（42%）认为两位候选人下制度破裂风险大致相同。

对应原文证据

1. +12126983044 benito.berber@natixis.com Discover more on our Website Brazil – Election Survey Results Brazil’s general election will be held on October 4, with asecond round on October 25 ifno candidate secures more than 50% of the vote inthe first round.
2. 5.0 - 5.10 5.10 - 5.20 5.20 - 5.30 5.30 - 5.40 5.40 - 5.50 Over 5.50 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Median: Source: Natixis LATAM MACRO SNAPSHOT research.natixis.com IfFlávio Bolsonaro wins… bullish BRL expectations but risks remain Under aFlávio Bolsonaro victory, survey respondents expect amore favorable market reaction.
3. Policy formanaging conflicts of interest: https://natixis.groupebpce.com/wp- content/uploads/2022/11/summary_policy_management_of_conflicts_of_interest s_eng_220826.pdf Information about potential conflicts ofinterest within Natixis/Groupe BCPE: https://home.cib.natixis.com/regulation Thisdocument isacommunication fordiscussion andinformation purposes only and isexclusively intended forand may only betransmitted toeligible counterparties, professional clients andqualified investors, assuch terms (ortheir equivalents) areunderstood andapplied under allrelevant laws andregulations applicable toyouandus,forpurposes ofthiscommunication. · 2022