NAB Australian Housing Market Update– Sept 26

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NAB 澳大利亚住房市场更新 – 9月 26

NAB Markets09/14/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Australia's housing downturn broadened through winter. Cotality's Home Value Index fell 0.9% nationally in August, the fifth straight monthly decline, leaving values 3.6% below the March peak. 93% of capital city suburbs fell over three months versus 45% in autumn. Sydney is declining faster than over the same stage of the 2022-23 correction. Brisbane fell 1.0% and Melbourne and Canberra 1.1%. Darwin was the only capital to avoid falls.

Institution: NAB Markets
Published: 09/14/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: September 2019

Key arguments

The downturn has shifted from concentrated high-value segments to broad-based softening, with 93% of capital city suburbs falling over three months versus 45% in autumn.
Declining demand is the main driver: sales were down 21% year-on-year through winter, listings are 17% lower, yet advertised stock is 41% higher because homes take longer to sell.
Affordability and serviceability constraints, high mortgage rates and cost-of-living pressures are limiting borrowing capacity, and higher-than-expected core inflation raises the possibility of a further RBA rate hike.
Rental conditions remain historically tight with a 1.9% national vacancy rate, supporting rent growth, though the national gross yield of 3.79% remains below neutral cash flow for most investors.

Key numbers

National home value change (August): -0.9%
Values below March peak: -3.6%
Capital city suburbs falling over three months: 93%
National vacancy rate: 1.9%
National gross rental yield: 3.79%

Main risks

A further RBA rate hike would add pressure on elevated household debt, reduce borrowing capacity and dent consumer confidence.
Spring selling season may be less active than usual, testing the depth of demand with a challenging selling environment.
Listings typically rise seasonally in spring and early summer, which could add to advertised supply and weigh on prices further.

Corresponding source evidence

Adelaide and Perth also moved lower, with values in both cities down 0.8% in August.
The combined regional index was down 0.4% in August, taking regional values 1.2% lower through winter.
Cotality’s quarterly estimate of home sales is tracking 15% lower than the same time last year and 11% below the five-year average.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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