市场焦点 · 第三次尝试终于使美元/日元跌破155

关键论点

• 贝森特在G20期间以及据报道对日本财政和货币政策表达不满，成为日元买盘的催化剂。
• 日本央行行长植田和男及委员高田创的鹰派言论，增强了市场对日本央行加速加息的预期，支撑日元。
• 市场再度猜测GPIF可能调整资产配置，因其资产规模庞大，强化了日元升值动能。
• 美国就业数据好坏参半及特朗普的批评，使美联储加息预期降温，广泛压制美元。
• 技术面上，美元兑日元跌破155及38.2%斐波那契回撤位，可能进一步下行，但整体趋势尚未根本改变。

对应原文证据

1. ) The USD/JPY fell below the lower end of our forecast range of 155 on 7 September.
2. For example, at his post -G20 press conference on 1 September, Bessent said Japan should move away from its reflationary policies.
3. On 31 August, he also said in a media interview that he was confident the Japanese government and BOJ would take steps that would lead to a stronger yen.