Asia macro notebook asia and china august pmi

中文标题

亚洲宏观笔记本：亚洲及中国八月采购经理人指数（PMI）

MUFG09/04/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

According to MUFG's Asia Macro Notebook for September 2026, August PMIs across Asia indicate a broadening growth momentum, driven by technology and AI-related demand, while China's recovery remains uneven with continued weakness in services, construction, and domestic demand. MUFG views August PMIs as supportive for Asian FX, particularly technology- and export-linked currencies such as KRW, TWD, SGD, and CNY, though China's uneven recovery may cap broader Asia FX upside.

Institution: MUFG
Published: 09/04/2026
Research topic: Sector momentum · China construction · Sector divergence
Time horizon: short-term · medium-term

Key arguments

August PMIs signal broadening growth across Asia, with composite PMIs in expansion in India, Singapore, and Japan, and manufacturing strengthening across the region.
China's official composite PMI edged up to 49.8 in August but remains below 50, indicating modest contraction in overall activity, with manufacturing stabilizing while services and construction remain weak.
Technology-driven economies like Taiwan and South Korea continue to outperform, supported by the semiconductor and electronics cycle.
RatingDog (Caixin) PMIs show stronger private-sector activity, with manufacturing PMI at 51.5 and services PMI at 51.4, but business confidence eased to a seven-month low.
August PMIs are supportive for Asian FX, particularly KRW, TWD, SGD, and CNY, but China's uneven recovery likely caps broader Asia FX upside.

Key numbers

China official composite PMI: 49.8
China RatingDog composite PMI: 51.5
Philippines manufacturing PMI: 54.9
China official manufacturing PMI: 49.8
China non-manufacturing PMI: 49.0
China services PMI: 49.3
China construction PMI: 46.9

Main risks

China's uneven recovery and persistent weakness in services, construction, and domestic demand may weigh on broader Asia FX.
Adverse weather conditions in China caused temporary disruptions but may reverse, adding uncertainty to near-term data.
Business confidence in China eased to a seven-month low, indicating concerns over underlying domestic demand.
Potential for continued softness in Chinese construction and property sectors to drag on regional sentiment.

Corresponding source evidence

A reading of 46.9 for construction sector PMI in August meant more construction firms reported a decline in activity than an increase versus the previous month. This suggested that housing construction remained under pressure from the prolonged property downturn as private developers were still reluctant to launch new projects, and local government investment/infrastructure investment has not yet fully offset the weakness in residential construction. · short-term
Meanwhile, high-tech (52.9) and equipment manufacturing (51.4) continued to outperform, while the consumer goods sector remained in contraction at 49.0, highlighting persistent softness in domestic demand. · short-term
Most Asian economies’ manufacturing PMIs remained above the 50 -expansion threshold in August, signalling continued strength in regional manufacturing activity. Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines and India remained among the strongest performers, while Indonesia, Malaysia and China continued to lag. · short-term

Conditions / invalidation

Large enterprises PMI above 50

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.