宏观 · 宏观快速反应 欧元区HICP：迄今传导证据有限。但这种情况会持续吗？

关键论点

• 能源冲击向服务业的传导迄今可忽略，仅在非能源工业品中初现温和迹象。
• 8月核心通胀放缓完全来自服务业（由3.3%降至3.0%），而非能源工业品通胀则加速（由0.9%升至1.2%）。
• 高能耗服务业通胀降至同比2.9%；剔除旅行后，能源敏感型服务业通胀连续第三个月稳定在3.3%。
• 天然气价格上涨向终端价格的传导慢于石油，但效应可能更持久，尤其是在对冲合约到期后。

对应原文证据

1. New pressures on crude oil and gas prices will push up headline inflation in the coming months, but they also increase the risk of more intense pressure on core prices in the coming quarters.
2. The final estimate for the August HICP in the euro area showed a one-tenth downward revision in headline inflation, to 3.2% y/y, although this still represents an acceleration from July’s 2.9 %.
3. The slowdown in core inflation compared with July is entirely attributable to the services component, which fell from 3.3% to 3.0% y/y, whilst inflation for non-energy industrial goods rose from 0.9% to 1.2%.