Commodities, FX and Rates

中文标题

大宗商品、外汇与利率

Intesa Sanpaolo10/05/2026updated 10/17/2026

Multiple economies

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

Spain's 29 November snap election likely hands power to a PP-Vox coalition, with a new cabinet perhaps only in early 2027. Intesa keeps its growth forecasts of 2.5% for 2026 and 1.9% for 2027, as September inflation reached 5% on HICP while core held at 3.2%. The 2023 budget rollover delivers default fiscal consolidation, and debt should fall about 1.5pp a year from 99.3% of GDP in 2026.

Institution: Intesa Sanpaolo
Published: 10/05/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: 2027 · 2026 · 2019 · July 2027 · July 2023 · 2023

Key arguments

A PP-Vox coalition looks the most likely election outcome, with the September poll average giving PP 32.5%, PSOE 26.2% and Vox 17.6%, but polling misses or a less stable PP minority with external Vox support cannot be ruled out.
Near-term growth and fiscal forecasts are unchanged by the election because the 2023 budget rollover freezes discretionary appropriations, delivering consolidation by default.
A right-wing government could tighten migration and labour policy, slowing GDP growth and job creation; immigration contributed 1.7pp of the 3.7% average annual growth in 2022-25.
Fiscal risks are deferred rather than removed: slower consolidation is a second-half 2027 story, and the 2.3% of GDP 2027 deficit projection looks more uncertain depending on the size of PP's promised income tax cuts.

Key numbers

Spain 2026 GDP growth forecast: 2.5%
Spain 2027 GDP growth forecast: 1.9%
September HICP inflation: 5% y/y
Core inflation: 3.2% y/y
Government debt: 99.3% of GDP in 2026, falling 1.5pp/year

Main risks

A polling miss as in July 2023 could reopen coalition scenarios, although the projection cushion is now wider at about 30 seats.
A less stable PP minority with Vox external support could revive political fragmentation and the impasse of the last two years.
Slower fiscal consolidation in the second half of 2027 could leave the 2.3% of GDP deficit projection uncertain if income tax cuts are large.

Corresponding source evidence

Spain's snap election should not weigh on the short- term economic and fiscal outlook Prime Minister Sánchez has called a snap election for 29 November after Congress rejected two housing decrees, in what he considered his last chance to rally the PSOE appeal towards the public opinion.
A new cabinet may not be in place before early 2027. · 2027
The increased political uncertainty does not substantially alter our growth scenario for 2026-27, but a change of government could lead to more restrictive migration and labour policies, with an impact on growth prospects over the longer term. · 2026

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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