大宗商品、外汇与利率

关键论点

• 能源价格上涨拖累消费者及贸易/服务业信心，建筑业还受到住宅市场调整和财政补贴收紧的冲击。
• 制造业韧性突出，以资本品为主，受人工智能与国防需求以及德国需求复苏支撑，与其他部门疲弱形成反差。
• 调查支持下半年GDP放缓至约0.1%季环比，主要下行风险是消费，预计在年初前后触底于0.1%季环比。
• 劳动力市场保持韧性，与消费或GDP出现负增长不一致，从而限制放缓幅度。

对应原文证据

1. Overall, the surveys appear consistent with our expectation of a slowdown in GDP in the second half of the year (aro und 0.1% q/q) following a first half that was significantly better than expected (0.24% q/q on average in the first two quarters).
2. Consumer confidence has deteriorated again after two months of recovery, falling to 91.2 from 94.5 in August (the consensus had expected it to remain broadly stable ).This figure is influenced by a change in the operator managing the survey network , which could lead to discontinuities when comparing results with those from previous months.
3. Conversely, both assessments and , above all, expectations regarding the economic situation among respondents show a recovery (in the case of expectations, the monthly rise isthe largest since November 2022), whilst fears of unemployment have fallen for the fifth month running. · November 2022