Riksbank preview hold now hike in november
中文标题
瑞典央行前瞻：现在按兵不动，11月加息
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
ING expects the Riksbank to hold its policy rate at 1.75% on 24 September, though a surprise hike cannot be fully ruled out given only 5bp is priced. A 25bp hike is forecast in November or December, with a preference for November, followed by another in February or March 2027. EUR/SEK is revised to 11.10 by year-end, with near-term upside risk to 11.40-11.50.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 09/18/2026
- Research topic
- Fed Policy · Crude Oil (WTI) · Inflation
- Time horizon
- next year · this year · 2027
Key arguments
- August inflation undershot expectations, so the case for an immediate hike is weak, but external pressures are mounting.
- Rising oil prices and a more proactive ECB and Fed could bring forward a hike that already looked likely early next year.
- Rate projections are expected to be revised higher, with a 4Q average policy rate of around 1.88% and 1Q27 at 2.05%.
- A hawkish Riksbank message could support the krona, but sustained EUR/SEK downside requires lower oil prices.
Key numbers
- Riksbank policy rate (current)
- 1.75%
- Market pricing for September hike
- 5bp
- Market pricing for November hike
- 22bp
- EUR/SEK year-end forecast
- 11.10
- EUR/SEK near-term upside range
- 11.40-11.50
Main risks
- A surprise hike on 24 September cannot be fully ruled out.
- Escalation in the Gulf could keep oil prices elevated, delaying the expected rate path and lifting EUR/SEK further.
- Market pricing for rates to reach 3.0% by end-2027 is well above ING's forecast, posing a risk of repricing if inflation surprises.
Corresponding source evidence
We expect a hike at the November meeting, followed by at least another one by end-1Q27.
We have revised our EUR/SEK profile higher on the back of our new Fed and ECB calls, but SEK appreciation remains our baseline The Riksbank has been on hold despite energy price increases Consensus is in favour of the Riksbank staying on hold at 1.75% on 24 September.
Higher oil prices and the more proactive stance of the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve could lead the Riksbank to bring forward a hike that already looked likely early next year, as inflation gradually moves back above target.
· next year
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · FED
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 09/18/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction