瑞典央行前瞻：现在按兵不动，11月加息

关键论点

• 8月通胀低于预期，因此立即加息的理据较弱，但外部压力正在加大。
• 油价上涨以及欧洲央行和美联储更积极的立场，可能促使原本看似明年年初的加息提前。
• 预计利率预测将上调，第四季度平均政策利率约为1.88%，2027年第一季度为2.05%。
• 瑞典央行的鹰派信息可能支撑克朗，但欧元兑瑞典克朗持续下行需要油价走低。

对应原文证据

1. We expect a hike at the November meeting, followed by at least another one by end-1Q27.
2. We have revised our EUR/SEK profile higher on the back of our new Fed and ECB calls, but SEK appreciation remains our baseline The Riksbank has been on hold despite energy price increases Consensus is in favour of the Riksbank staying on hold at 1.75% on 24 September.
3. Higher oil prices and the more proactive stance of the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve could lead the Riksbank to bring forward a hike that already looked likely early next year, as inflation gradually moves back above target. · next year