RBA前瞻：果断加息以抑制通胀

关键论点

• 核心通胀顽固：8月截尾均值通胀可能连续第三个月维持在3.6%同比，与澳联储年底降至3.3%的预期不符。
• 劳动力市场保持韧性：7月和8月全职就业走强，三个月平均新增就业达3.4万，参与率升至创纪录的67.1%。
• 能源驱动的上行风险：美伊冲突推高油价，抬升国内燃油成本；澳联储估计燃油价格上涨10%将使整体通胀增加逾0.3个百分点。
• 澳元支撑：AUD/USD已低估至1.5个标准差区间之外；若9月澳联储加息且美联储12月加息，利差应改善。

对应原文证据

1. We expect a 25bp hike next Tuesday to offer some support for the AUD The RBA is set to lean hawkish We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver a decisive 25bp rate hike in the cash rate to 4.6% on 29 September, reflecting an economy that continues to run hot across multiple fronts.
2. Labour market conditions remain tight, second-quarter GDP growth surprised to the upside, and recent inflation readings have come in stronger than expected.
3. While the housing market has shown signs of cooling, we expect the RBA to emphasise that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside and that further vigilance is required to ensure price pressures return sustainably to target.