波兰货币政策委员会保持耐心，10月维持政策利率不变

关键论点

• 9月约4.0%的同比通胀几乎完全由燃油驱动，核心通胀可能小幅回落，信号偏鸽。
• 委员会将能源价格相关的监管决定列为通胀风险，涉及受监管的天然气和电力价格及燃油消费税/增值税下调的可能。
• 波兰尚无明显的全面价格压力迹象，但捷克共和国已开始出现二轮效应。
• ING预计2027年一季度预防性加息25–50个基点，11月宏观预测可能开启紧缩讨论。

对应原文证据

1. In our view, the current inflation backdrop allows policymakers to remain on hold for several months As expected, the National Bank of Poland kept the reference rate at 3.75% NBP rates unchanged As expected, the Monetary Policy Council left National Bank of Poland interest rates unchanged in October.
2. The post-meeting statement remains concise and broadly neutral in tone In the post-meeting statement, the Council noted that the increase in inflation in September was driven mainly by higher fuel prices, while core inflation most likely edged down slightly.
3. This may refer both to likely increases in regulated gas and electricity prices for households, which we believe should be lower than implied by 2027 futures contracts. · 2027