Poland softer august industrial data underscore risks to gdp growth outlook

Key arguments

• August industrial output at 4.3% YoY missed ING's 8.3% and consensus 6.1%, despite a favourable calendar effect and low base.
• Manufacturing growth slowed to 3.4% YoY; seasonally adjusted output fell 1.2% MoM after two flat months.
• PPI accelerated to 4.2% YoY from 3.1% in July, driven by base effects and higher petroleum refining prices.
• ING keeps its 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.4% despite upside scope, as slowing wages, high fuel prices and peaking NRP-backed investment weigh on the second half.

Corresponding source evidence

1. We re sticking to our conservative forecast of GDP growth at 3.4% this year Softer industrial data for August has only increased our caution surrounding Poland's economic outlook Industrial output short of expectations in August Poland’s industrial output increased by 4.3% year-on-year in August (ING: 8.3%; consensus: 6.1%), following growth of 4.8% YoY in July (revised down from 5.1% YoY). · this year
2. Seasonally adjusted data points to a 1.2% month-on-month decline in industrial production, following two months of flat monthly readings.
3. The strongest gains were recorded in electrical equipment manufacturing (18.7% YoY) as well as machinery and equipment production (12.8% YoY), reflecting the advanced stage of the investment cycle co-financed by the National Recovery Plan (NRP).