Labour shortages and regulation reshape the dutch staffing industry

中文标题

劳动力短缺与监管重塑荷兰人力派遣行业

ING THINK09/23/2026updated 10/17/2026

Unknown economy

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

ING Research expects Dutch flexible employment hours to rise 1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, after a 0.5% increase last year and two years of contraction. Growth is concentrated among smaller, specialised firms, while large ABU-affiliated agencies keep shrinking. A new collective labour agreement raises temp hiring costs, prompting an expected 6.5% rate increase in 2026, though margins stay pressured. Mandatory certification under the Wtta from 1 January 2027, backed by a €100,000 guarantee, should accelerate consolidation.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 09/23/2026
Research topic: Not explicitly stated
Time horizon: 2026 · 2025 · January 2027

Key arguments

Dutch flex-sector recovery is modest and uneven: hours worked are forecast to grow 1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, but gains are concentrated among smaller, specialised agencies while larger ABU-affiliated temp agencies continue to contract since March 2022.
The new collective labour agreement has sharply increased temp hiring costs, as temporary workers must receive conditions at least equivalent to comparable client-company employees and pension accrual starts from day one; the industry is expected to raise rates by an average 6.5% in 2026.
Higher rates do not fully offset rising expenses, since long-term fixed-price contracts limit cost pass-through and investments in IT, digitalisation and compliance weigh on profitability, leaving margins under pressure.
Mandatory certification under the Wtta from 1 January 2027, requiring regulatory compliance and a €100,000 financial guarantee, is expected to raise compliance costs and drive consolidation, with smaller agencies likely acquisition targets.

Key numbers

Forecast growth in Dutch flex-sector hours worked, 2026: 1% year-on-year
Forecast growth in Dutch flex-sector hours worked, 2027: 1.5% year-on-year
Growth in hours worked last year after two years of contraction: 0.5%
Expected average rate increase in the staffing industry in 2026: 6.5%
Financial guarantee required under the Wtta from 1 January 2027: €100,000

Main risks

The recovery may remain elusive: larger ABU-affiliated temp agencies have seen continuous declines since March 2022 despite the contraction easing since early 2025.
Margins may stay under pressure because long-term fixed-price contracts limit cost pass-through and IT, digitalisation and compliance investments absorb gains.
Stricter regulation, including the Wtta certification requirement and €100,000 guarantee, may push smaller agencies into acquisition or out of business.

Corresponding source evidence

ING Research expects the number of hours worked in the sector to increase by 1% in 2026, followed by a further recovery in 2027 with growth of 1.5%. · 2026
After two years of contraction, hours worked increased by just 0.5% last year.
Although the contraction has become less pronounced since early 2025, a meaningful recovery remains elusive. · 2025

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

Verify at the original source ↗

Download institution PDF