Ing monthly weathering the shocks report
中文标题
ING月度报告:经受冲击
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
ING's September 2026 report highlights that despite a series of shocks, the global economy has remained resilient. Key adjustments include higher oil and gas forecasts, a 4.90% US 10-year yield forecast, expectations of a September Fed rate hike, a final Eurozone hike, a slight China GDP forecast trim to 4.6%, UK rate cuts in 2027, and a hawkish Fed prompting a stronger dollar with EUR/USD at 1.16 and USD/JPY at 160.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 09/03/2026
- Research topic
- monetary_policy · FED · macro
- Time horizon
- September 2026 · 2026 · end-2026 · not specified · winter 2026/2027
Key arguments
- Global economy has shown resilience despite unprecedented shocks.
- Oil and gas forecasts revised higher due to lack of US-Iran breakthrough.
- US 10-year yield pressure persists, with forecast at 4.90%.
- September Fed rate hike probable, but not necessarily a series.
- Eurozone rate hike likely this month, possibly the last.
- China's 2026 GDP forecast trimmed to 4.6%.
- UK rate cuts expected in 2027 despite market pricing.
- Japan rate hikes expected in September and two more in 2027.
Key numbers
- US 10-year yield forecast
- 4.90%
- China 2026 GDP forecast
- 4.6% YoY
- EUR/USD year-end forecast
- 1.16
- USD/JPY profile
- 160
Main risks
- Higher-for-longer yields may overshoot before stabilizing.
- Fed rate hikes could turn into a series if job creation accelerates.
- European natural gas vulnerability into winter.
- Geopolitical shocks could further disrupt energy markets.
- China policy support may be insufficient to meet growth targets.
Corresponding source evidence
The stage is set for another rate hike this month but for now we think this will be the last.
· September 2026we’re trimming our 2026 GDP forecast slightly – to 4.6% YoY from 4.7%.
· 2026In light of a more hawkish Fed outlook, we now expect the dollar to stay stronger for longer.
· end-2026
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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Publisher disclaimer
AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · DXY
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 09/03/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction