Hungary’s labour market eases, but structural pressures remain

中文标题

匈牙利劳动力市场趋缓，但结构性压力犹存

ING THINK08/28/2026updated 10/17/2026

Unknown economy

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

ING expects Hungary's labour market to ease modestly with wage growth moderating, but structural pressures from demographics persist, supporting elevated wage growth and consumption; they maintain their 2026 forecasts for average wage growth and unemployment.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 08/28/2026
Research topic: wage growth · Hungarian Labour Market · minimum wage
Time horizon: 2026 · June 2026 · 2027 · coming months · ongoing

Key arguments

Wage growth in June slowed to 7.1% YoY, the lowest since 2021, but purchasing power remains strong with net real earnings up 7.6%.
Unemployment rose to 4.5% in July, but driven by increased participation, not job losses; employment hit a peak.
Demographic decline persists, with working-age population down 175k since mid-2022, creating structural supply pressure.
Minimum wage increases of 11% and 7% anchor wage trends; ING forecasts 9-10% average wage growth for 2026.
Next year's minimum wage negotiations and personal income tax changes may lead to smaller wage increases.

Key numbers

June wage growth YoY: 7.1%
Net real earnings growth YoY: 7.6%
July unemployment rate (monthly): 4.5%
Three-month average unemployment: 4.6%
Employment rate May-July: 65.5%
Working-age population decline since mid-2022: -175k
2026 wage growth forecast: 9-10%
2026 unemployment forecast: ~4.5%

Main risks

Geopolitical risks and domestic economic policy changes dampen business optimism.
Companies are considering workforce reductions due to rising labour costs.
Investment statistics for Q2 painted a bleak picture.
Next year's minimum wage negotiations and tax changes may alter wage trends.

Corresponding source evidence

The latest June data has not altered our overall outlook, so we are still expecting annual average wage growth of around 9-10% for 2026 as a whole. · 2026
The figures show a 7.1% year-on-year increase in gross average earnings in June 2026. This represents a huge slowdown compared with the previous month and is the lowest figure since 2021 (excluding the dip in 2023 caused by the base effect of the one-off bonus for armed forces). · June 2026
In light of the planned personal income tax changes for next year, it would not be surprising if gross minimum wages were to rise by a much smaller low single-digit percentage than we have become accustomed to in recent years. · 2027

Conditions / invalidation

If planned personal income tax changes are implemented, gross minimum wages may rise by a much smaller low single-digit percentage.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.