匈牙利劳动力市场趋缓，但结构性压力犹存

关键论点

• 6月工资增长同比放缓至7.1%，为2021年以来最低，但实际净收入增长7.6%，购买力强劲。
• 7月失业率升至4.5%，但主要由参与率上升驱动，而非失业增加；就业人数达到峰值。
• 人口下降持续，劳动适龄人口自2022年年中以来减少17.5万，造成结构性供应压力。
• 最低工资上调11%和7%锚定工资趋势；ING预测2026年工资平均增长9-10%。
• 明年的最低工资谈判和个人所得税改革可能导致工资涨幅收窄。

对应原文证据

1. The latest June data has not altered our overall outlook, so we are still expecting annual average wage growth of around 9-10% for 2026 as a whole. · 2026
2. The figures show a 7.1% year-on-year increase in gross average earnings in June 2026. This represents a huge slowdown compared with the previous month and is the lowest figure since 2021 (excluding the dip in 2023 caused by the base effect of the one-off bonus for armed forces). · June 2026
3. In light of the planned personal income tax changes for next year, it would not be surprising if gross minimum wages were to rise by a much smaller low single-digit percentage than we have become accustomed to in recent years. · 2027