Hold for monthly cis 4 currencies remain supported selective rate cuts possible

Key arguments

• Higher fuel prices and Black Sea disruptions benefit Azerbaijan, reinforcing fiscal/external buffers and supporting the manat peg.
• Kazakhstan benefits from higher oil prices but faces CPC route disruptions; exports remain 10% above post-pandemic levels, cushioning the tenge.
• Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan attract portfolio inflows due to high interest rate differentials and declining inflation, supporting KZT and UZS.
• Inflation in Armenia and Azerbaijan is cost-driven from a low base, reducing urgency for policy response; both hold at 6.50%.
• Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have slowing inflation from high levels, allowing selective rate cuts.
• Global inflation/rates backdrop limits broad easing, but FX resilience permits selective cuts in KZT and UZS.

Corresponding source evidence

1. Inflation risks are also rising, but domestic buffers should prevent a uniformly hawkish shift, keeping regional rate decisions selective – between a hold and a cut Azerbaijan, which is benefiting from higher fuel prices Commodity support uneven The revised global outlook combines a higher near-term fuel price trajectory with renewed Black Sea disruptions. · near-term
2. Higher oil prices support nominal export receipts, but disruptions to the CPC route have forced the authorities to lower the 2026 production target. · 2026
3. Even so, according to our estimates, annualised crude exports remain around 10% above their 2021-22 post-pandemic level, cushioning the external accounts and the tenge. · 2021