CIS月度观察：货币仍获支撑，选择性降息仍有可能

关键论点

• 燃料价格上涨和黑海扰动利好阿塞拜疆，增强财政和外部缓冲，支持马纳特挂钩。
• 哈萨克斯坦受益于油价上涨但面临CPC路线中断；出口仍比疫情后水平高10%，支撑坚戈。
• 哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦因高利率差异和通胀下降吸引投资组合流入，支撑KZT和UZS。
• 亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆的通胀是成本驱动的，从低基数上升，政策回应紧迫性低；均维持6.50%。
• 哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦通胀从高位放缓，允许选择性降息。
• 全球通胀/利率背景限制广泛宽松，但汇率的韧性允许KZT和UZS选择性降息。

对应原文证据

1. Inflation risks are also rising, but domestic buffers should prevent a uniformly hawkish shift, keeping regional rate decisions selective – between a hold and a cut Azerbaijan, which is benefiting from higher fuel prices Commodity support uneven The revised global outlook combines a higher near-term fuel price trajectory with renewed Black Sea disruptions. · near-term
2. Higher oil prices support nominal export receipts, but disruptions to the CPC route have forced the authorities to lower the 2026 production target. · 2026
3. Even so, according to our estimates, annualised crude exports remain around 10% above their 2021-22 post-pandemic level, cushioning the external accounts and the tenge. · 2021