Fx daily boj plays catch up with fed
中文标题
外汇日报：日本央行追赶美联储
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
The Bank of Japan raised its key rate 25bp to 1.25% in a split vote, but the lack of hawkish guidance drove the yen to 157.11 per dollar. ING sees further USD/JPY upside toward 157-160 if oil stays elevated and the Fed hikes in October. The Fed's hawkish dot plot supports dollar upside, with oil the main short-term driver; Brent is unlikely to fall below $100. EUR/USD faces a test of 1.140. The CNB held rates at 3.75% but a November hike is now forecast.
- Institution
- ING THINK
- Published
- 09/18/2026
- Research topic
- Crude Oil (WTI) · US Dollar (DXY) · Fed Policy
- Time horizon
- this year · 2025
Key arguments
- The BoJ's dovish 25bp hike to 1.25% and dissents from two members weaken the case for further tightening, leaving the yen exposed.
- The Fed's hawkish message gives markets a green light to fully price an October hike if data and energy prices allow.
- Oil is the predominant short-term driver with a quiet US data calendar; Brent is unlikely to fall below $100.
- ECB speakers remain broadly hawkish but see no second-round effects, arguing against chasing EUR/USD lower.
Key numbers
- BoJ policy rate
- 1.25%
- BoJ hike
- 25bp
- USD/JPY level
- 157.11
- USD/JPY projected range
- 157-160
- CNB policy rate
- 3.75%
Main risks
- A further pick-up in inflation could prompt a more hawkish BoJ and reverse yen weakness.
- Falling oil prices or a Middle East de-escalation could remove the dollar's main support.
- Stronger-than-expected euro area data could push EUR/USD above the 1.140 test level.
Corresponding source evidence
Even so, we do not see these developments as enough to take Brent back below $100/bbl at this stage.
We still see upside risks for the dollar as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish message on Wednesday has, in our view, given the green light to markets to fully price in a hike in October if data and energy prices suggest so.
Fedspeak will also be watched, although the dot plot seemed clear enough in signalling the Fed is planning to hike again this year.
· this year
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · WTI
| Institution / report | Published | Direction | Source-checked target | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ING THINKFx daily boj plays catch up with fed | 09/18/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| Saxo BankMarket Quick Take - Chipmakers extend their slide as Brent holds above 107 | 10/19/2026 | Neutral | — | Not stated |
| MUFGMiddle East Daily | 10/16/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
| Scotiabank EconomicsGLOBAL ECONOMICS · DAILY POINTS | 10/16/2026 | Bullish | — | Not stated |
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 09/18/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction