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Federal reserve preview a pause before a december hike

中文标题

美联储前瞻：12月加息前的暂停

ING THINKupdated 10/23/2026
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United StatesFederal Reserve
Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

ING expects the Fed to hold rates at the 28 October FOMC meeting before a 25bp December hike to a 4-4.25% target range, then a long pause until the hike is reversed in December 2027. Officials show no rush despite hot September core CPI at 0.3% month-on-month. Dissents are likely. The base case assumes post-midterm progress lowering Gulf energy, shipping and insurance costs, bringing US inflation back to 2% by 2H 2027.

Institution
ING THINK
Published
10/23/2026
Research topic
Fed Policy · Inflation · US 10Y Treasury
Time horizon
December 2027 · 2027
Fed Policy · FEDInflation · CPIUS 10Y Treasury · US10Y

Key arguments

  • A 25bp December hike to 4-4.25% is expected, followed by a pause until the hike is reversed in December 2027.
  • Hammack, Kashkari and Logan, who dissented for a hike in July, could dissent again; the decision is unlikely to be unanimous.
  • A softer 10-year Treasury yield just below 5% and risk-off tone argue against tightening at this meeting.
  • The inflation path hinges on cheaper Gulf energy flows plus lower shipping and insurance costs, with 3% wage growth and housing disinflation also helping.

Key numbers

September core CPI (month-on-month)
0.3%
December hike size forecast
25bp
Fed funds target range after December hike
4-4.25%
FOMC members projecting 50bp of hikes by year-end
4
US wage growth
3%

Main risks

  • A longer-lasting Gulf conflict could force additional hikes in 1Q 2027.
  • In that stressed scenario, households face weaker wage growth and higher energy costs, with mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs at new cycle highs, so cuts in 2H 2027 could be swifter and larger.
  • The 10-year yield is expected to snap back above 5% on inflation, fiscal deficit and AI-boom impulses; timing is uncertain.

Corresponding source evidence

  1. The press release is likely to be brief, and we also expect another short and snappy press conference from Chair Warsh.
  2. We expect his message to be that the economy remains in decent shape, unemployment is low, and inflation is above target.
  3. US core consumer price inflation YoY% versus the Fed funds policy rate Source: Macrobond, ING Looking towards December We will have two jobs reports and one inflation print ahead of the December decision.

Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.

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AI analysis

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Cross-institution comparison · FED

Inflation · 2
Institution / reportPublishedDirectionSource-checked targetHorizon
ING THINKFederal reserve preview a pause before a december hike10/23/2026Bullish—Not stated
Scotiabank EconomicsGLOBAL ECONOMICS · DAILY POINTS10/27/2026Neutral—Not stated
NatixisFOMC Preview: Ghosting the CPI (for now)10/26/2026Neutral—Not stated
Westpac / Westpac IQ'Australia and NZ Weekly'10/26/2026Neutral—Not stated

How this page was produced

Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ING THINK on 10/23/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/23/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction