Eurozone economy remains resilient

中文标题

欧元区经济仍具韧性

ING THINK09/03/2026updated 10/17/2026

Citable research brief

Core conclusion · Tlines extraction

The eurozone economy remains resilient despite the energy shock, with moderate growth expected. The ECB is likely to raise rates in September, and further hikes are possible. Risks include inflationary pressures and French fiscal concerns.

Institution: ING THINK
Published: 09/03/2026
Research topic: growth · Eurozone GDP · German economy
Time horizon: past · 6 months · 2026 · current · end-2026

NATGAS · NATGAS

Key arguments

Eurozone GDP grew 0.4% in Q2, with four consecutive quarters of ~0.3% growth excluding Ireland.
Inflation remains above 3% until spring 2027 due to energy prices, supporting ECB rate hikes.
ECB likely hikes in September; additional December hike possible depending on Middle East tensions and fiscal spreads.

Key numbers

Q2 GDP growth: 0.4% qoq
2026 growth forecast: 0.8%
2027 growth forecast: 1.3%
August inflation: 3.3%
Underlying inflation: 2.4%
ECB deposit rate: 2.50%

Main risks

Renewed escalation of the Middle East conflict could dampen growth and increase inflation.
French fiscal concerns could lead to wider bond spreads, tightening financial conditions.
Higher energy prices and food inflation may keep inflation above target longer.

Corresponding source evidence

Excluding Ireland’s volatile contribution, the eurozone has now expanded for four consecutive quarters at a pace of around 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. · past
Germany, which had barely grown for three successive years, was among the eurozone’s main growth drivers in the first half of 2026. Higher defence and infrastructure spending now appears to be gaining traction, which should support growth over the coming year. · 6 months
In that context, renewed upward pressure on French bond spreads has become a material risk for the second half of the year. · 6 months

Conditions / invalidation

If the conflict escalates.