欧元区经济仍具韧性

关键论点

• 欧元区第二季度GDP增长0.4%，除爱尔兰外连续四个季度环比增长约0.3%。
• 由于能源价格，通胀在2027年春季前将保持在3%以上，支持欧洲央行加息。
• 欧洲央行可能在9月加息；根据中东紧张局势和财政利差，12月可能进一步加息。

对应原文证据

1. Excluding Ireland’s volatile contribution, the eurozone has now expanded for four consecutive quarters at a pace of around 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. · past
2. Germany, which had barely grown for three successive years, was among the eurozone’s main growth drivers in the first half of 2026. Higher defence and infrastructure spending now appears to be gaining traction, which should support growth over the coming year. · 6 months
3. In that context, renewed upward pressure on French bond spreads has become a material risk for the second half of the year. · 6 months