中东欧与中亚一周前瞻：波兰和哈萨克斯坦通胀数据及捷克GDP详情

关键论点

• 波兰9月整体CPI同比预计高于4.0%，超出波兰国家银行2.5%±1个百分点的容忍区间上限，因燃油增值税减免到期且原油价格上涨。
• 这一意外可能支撑甚至推升本已高企的波兰加息预期。
• 捷克二季度GDP整体数据料获确认，但支出分项或因库存贡献被其他类别吸收而修正；家庭消费是否保持强劲是关键。
• 受霍尔木兹冲突再度升级、油价上涨和全球不确定性增加影响，捷克工业PMI可能走弱。

对应原文证据

1. The end of the temporary VAT cut on fuels (from 23% to 8%) in August, combined with higher crude oil prices in recent weeks, pushed fuel costs to fresh highs in September.
2. Core inflation was probably little changed, but we estimate that headline CPI rose above 4.0% YoY, thereby moving clearly above the upper bound of the National Bank of Poland's inflation target tolerance range (2.5% +/-1 percentage point).
3. CCA: Kazakhstan inflation expected to ease on base effects CPI data for Kazakhstan will be released on Thursday.