阿根廷与土耳其：比较去通胀策略时，阿根廷的前景不容乐观

关键论点

• 阿根廷的休克疗法与土耳其的灵活正统都将月度通胀降至约2%，但家庭层面的结果截然不同。
• 2024年以来阿根廷增长失衡——由农业（+50%）、渔业（+14%）、矿业（+24%）和金融中介（+23%）驱动，而建筑（-13%）和制造业（-9%）收缩。
• 阿根廷形成债务陷阱：个人贷款实际利率达64%，580万人逾期超90天，约半数逾期贷款被视为不可收回。
• IMF认为不良贷款上升风险低，因家庭债务仅约占GDP的5%，但BNP Paribas认为长期停滞甚至衰退的风险很高。

对应原文证据

1. Indeed, shock therapy is generally followed by a period of recession that can last several years, as was the case in Poland in the early 1990s.
2. However, Argentina’s macroeconomic picture contains a worrying grey area, as households’ ability to repay non-mortgage loans has very worryingly deteriorated since spring 2025, both in terms of the speed and scale of the decline – a situation not seen since 2008. · 2025
3. The Central Bank of Argentina estimates that 5.8 million people are more than 90 days in arrears on their loan repayments, and around half of these loans are viewed as irrecoverable.