Better in 2026, sharper cooling in 2027
中文标题
2026,年表现较好，2027年降温更为明显
Core conclusion · Tlines extraction
ABN AMRO raises its 2026 Dutch house price forecast to 3.8% from 3%, but cuts 2027 to 2.5% from 4% as two more ECB rate hikes lift mortgage rates. Transactions forecasts shift to -0.5% for 2026 and -5.5% for 2027. Cooling is led by Amsterdam, while rural provinces still post strong gains. Prices are not expected to fall.
- Institution
- ABN AMRO Research
- Published
- 10/01/2026
- Research topic
- Inflation
- Time horizon
- 2026 · 2027 · this year
Key arguments
- Dutch housing market beat expectations in H1 2026, prompting an upward revision to 2026 price growth, but the trend is cooling.
- Two further ECB hikes to a 3% deposit rate will keep mortgage rates high, dampening demand and cutting 2027 price growth.
- Regional divergence: Amsterdam is cooling (NVM reports slightly lower annual prices), while Groningen rose 7.9% y/y in Q2.
- Affordability now constrains demand: first-time buyers borrow almost 95% of NIBUD limits, while real disposable income grew only 0.7% in Q2.
Key numbers
- 2026 house price growth forecast
- 3.8% (raised from 3%)
- 2027 house price growth forecast
- 2.5% (lowered from 4%)
- 2026 transaction forecast
- -0.5% (raised from -3%)
- 2027 transaction forecast
- -5.5% (lowered from -4%)
- CBS August 2026 house prices
- +3.3% y/y, -0.1% m/m
Main risks
- More ECB rate hikes than expected could push mortgage rates higher and further reduce borrowing capacity.
- Amsterdam's cooling may spread to other regions, as it has historically been a trend indicator.
- New construction remains far below the 100,000-home target with only 37,595 homes added in the first seven months of 2026.
Corresponding source evidence
We expect house prices to rise by 3.8% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
· 2026The housing market did better than expected in the first half of 2026.
· 2026We are therefore raising our price forecast for 2026 from 3% to 3.8%.
· 2026
Context: the conclusion is Tlines' automated extraction, not the institution's wording. Quoted evidence is publisher wording. Scope and date must travel with the conclusion.
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AI analysis
Cross-institution comparison · CPI
How this page was produced
Tlines extracted the conclusion, arguments, numbers and risks above from the report published by ABN AMRO Research on 10/01/2026, then structured them for comparison. The publisher's own wording is reachable through the source link on this page and is displayed in full above. Last updated 10/17/2026. Methodology · Source policy · AI usage · Request a correction