西太平洋银行 新西兰 RBNZ 客户脉搏调查，2026年9月

关键论点

• 79%的受访客户预计OCR将上调25个基点，与市场定价的90%概率接近。
• 64%的客户预计新西兰联储将预测年底OCR为3%，但仅55%认为实际OCR会达到3%。
• 通胀持续性和通胀预期上升被视为主要上行风险，而经济增长疲软和劳动力市场恶化是主要下行风险。
• 约半数客户认为恢复双重使命将降低本轮周期OCR峰值，但市场对此的定价程度不确定。

对应原文证据

1. • Our August Westpac Client Pulse survey of 92 clients showed that around 79% expect a 25bp lift in the OCR at this week’s policy meeting. · this week
2. • Around 64% of client expect the RBNZ to project a year-end OCR of 3%.
3. • While 55% of clients also expect a year-end OCR of 3%, views were skewed to the downside with 31% of clients expecting an OCR of 2.75% or lower.