每周经济评论 · 燃料、住房与崎岖前路

关键论点

• 自9月初以来新西兰元下跌逾4%，放大全球燃料价格涨幅，全国91号汽油均价上周升至每升3.60新元的历史高位，一个月内上涨约50分。
• 西太平洋银行预计12月季度物价上涨1.1%，将年度通胀推升至三年高位4.2%，高于新西兰联储9月预测的3.9%。
• 尽管通胀冲高，官方现金利率路径维持不变：10月按兵不动，12月货币政策声明加息25个基点至3%。
• 房市未能企稳：销量走弱、中位售房周期延长至48天、劳动力市场疲软、按揭利率偏高及待售房源增加，令2026年房价预测降至-1.4%。

对应原文证据

1. Inflation looks set to finish 2026 above 4%, while growth could lose a little momentum into year- end. · 2026
2. Even so, we continue to expect the RBNZ to pause in October before lifting the OCR to 3% in December.
3. Since our last forecast update in August, global oil and refined-fuel prices have climbed sharply, the New Zealand dollar has fallen, and longer-term interest rates have moved higher.