每周经济评论 · 一日四季

关键论点

• 近期数据显示新西兰经济保持坚挺，好于中东石油冲击初期担忧。
• 西太平洋银行将六月季度GDP从-0.1%上调至+0.2%，高于新西兰联储的持平预期。
• 季节性扭曲可能低估真实增长；潜在增速约为0.5%。
• 新西兰联储下一步可能更关注通胀证据而非GDP。

对应原文证据

1. That’s an upgrade from our previous forecast of a 0.1% fall, reflecting the final sectoral indicators that have been released over the last couple of weeks.
2. This would see annual growth accelerate from 1.5% to 2.4%, due to an unusually weak June quarter last year (-0.7%) dropping out of the calculation.
3. We estimate that this will subtract around 0.3ppts from growth this time, implying a healthier-looking underlying rate of 0.5% for the quarter.