每周经济评论 · 随波逐流

关键论点

• 美国数据强劲且油价回升，使市场相信联储需进一步加息，推高美国长期利率。
• 美债收益率上升带动新西兰利率走高，贸易加权指数较新西兰联储9月货币政策声明假设低4%。
• 市场目前定价10月28日加息概率约75%，超过声明前水平，尽管联储释放观望信号。
• 西太平洋银行预计10月暂停，12月加息25个基点。

对应原文证据

1. In the US, strong economic data and resurgent oil prices have led the market to believe that the central bank will need to get on with the job and hike its policy rate further in the months ahead.
2. Domestically, the NZIER’s quarterly survey of business opinion (6 Oct) and the September quarter CPI (22 Oct) will be especially important in that regard.
3. Perceptions of current job opportunities were unchanged at a net -60%.