长债的夏日突破

关键论点

• 30年期美国国债收益率已突破2007年以来最高水平。
• 四大基本面驱动因素：美联储不确定性、AI债券发行、财政压力、价格敏感型买家。
• 长端收益率应从此趋稳；强劲反转可能性较低。
• 偏好短期至中期久期及美国以外久期敞口。
• AI相关资本支出从2024年约2000亿美元增至2026年超8000亿美元，预计2030年达2万亿美元。

对应原文证据

1. This matters because term premium is fundamentally a compensation for uncertainty. A Fed that offers less guidance naturally raises the risk premium embedded in long-duration bonds. · medium-term
2. The consequence of this is higher term premiums and potentially greater volatility. · long-term
3. We continue to favor short to intermediate Treasury exposure where yields remain attractive, carry is high, and performance is more directly linked to a Fed that we expect to remain on hold this year · 12 months