每日：国债压力：对各市场的影响

关键论点

• 财政部干预效果短暂；长端收益率受财政赤字、能源价格和AI资本需求的结构性压力。
• 短中期债券收益率具吸引力且波动性低于长端。
• 黄金受益于债务可持续性担忧和美元疲软；12个月目标5400美元/盎司。
• 美元疲软可能缓和金融条件并支撑风险资产，但汇率波动需审查配置。
• 股市仍处上行趋势；债市动荡不构成减仓理由，但需分散配置。

对应原文证据

1. We expect gold to climb to USD 5,400/oz over the next 12 months. · 12 months
2. We think that yields in short- and medium-duration fixed income are attractive, while long-end bonds are likely to stay volatile until inflation and growth show clearer signs of moderating, or until fiscal concerns are meaningfully addressed. · near term
3. Looking forward, the dollar looks vulnerable to additional weakness, as the window for Federal Reserve hikes appears to be narrowing, and concerns around US debt sustainability tend to be dollar negative. · forward-looking