每日：波动加剧之际强化投资组合防御

关键论点

• 地缘政治冲击很少构成停止投资的充分理由：自1941年以来，危机开始后12个月标普500约有四分之三的时间上涨。
• 全球能源体系正在适应：OPEC 9月产量增加92万桶/日至2510万桶/日，约为2月水平的85%，G7释放紧急石油储备提供暂时缓解。
• 基准情形：能源流动与产量逐步恢复应使油价明年趋缓，能源价格上涨不足以拖累全球增长。
• 广泛大宗商品、固定收益及精选另类资产可增强组合韧性；大宗商品历史上与传统资产相关性较低。

对应原文证据

1. Brent crude oil hit USD 112/bbl for the first time since May and is on track for a third consecutive week of price gains as fresh attacks in the Middle East have heightened concerns about further disruptions to energy supplies.
2. Trade routes are also shifting, while the G7 decision to release additional emergency oil stocks should provide some temporary relief.
3. We acknowledge that the physical oil market remains tight and is vulnerable to further supply shocks, but our base case is that a gradual recovery of energy flows and production should allow oil prices to moderate into next year. · next year