瑞银CIO每日观点：油价上涨与AI担忧引发避险走势

关键论点

• 支撑股票的是稳健盈利而非地缘政治；疲软集中于科技板块，标普500三分之二成分股上涨，等权重指数升0.8%。
• 盈利增长正在扩散：标普500三季度每股盈利同比增长28%，半导体贡献约一半，云收入增速由48%加快至58%。
• 固定收益评为具吸引力：2年、5年、10年期收益率需分别上行约246、109、63个基点才能抵消一年票息收入，瑞银认为不太可能。
• 油价上涨构成逆风，但能源体系正在适应（中东出口恢复至冲突前约80%）；若无持续大涨，对GDP的拖累应在12个月内消退。

对应原文证据

1. We expect third-quarter S&P 500 earnings per share to grow 28% from a year earlier, driven by AI demand, an improving industrial cycle, and resilient higher-income consumers.
2. Semiconductor profits are expected to contribute around half of that growth, while average cloud revenue growth is forecast to accelerate from 48% in the June quarter to 58% year over year in the September quarter.
3. Beyond technology, nine consecutive months of expansion in the new-orders component of the ISM Manufacturing Index and 6% year-over-year growth in September US retail sales support our view that cyclical parts of the market should also see robust earnings growth.