QEF 9月2026 美国

关键论点

• 中东局势升级与美加关税争端短期无缓和迹象，因此上调油价预测。
• 市场计入更高通胀和更多央行紧缩，债券收益率随油价大幅上升。
• 更高收益率将逐步传导，导致2027年上半年住宅投资预测下调并削减家庭支出。
• 一旦紧缩足够，通胀应在2027年降温，为小幅降息铺路。

对应原文证据

1. At this point, neither look to have an off-ramp in the near future, causing us to raise the forecast for oil prices (see table).
2. The ECB, the Bank of Japan and U.S. Federal Reserve have already raised rates this quarter and some of them are likely to do so again this year. · this quarter
3. Many economies have maintained solid domestic momentum despite sub - stantial exposure to the oil supply shock, with India chief among them.