美国中期选举：眼下变化有限，未来政策风险更大

关键论点

• 基准情形为分裂政府：民主党赢得众议院、共和党保住参议院，全面立法变革受限。
• 2026年中期选举异常缺乏可操作的政策含义，预计不会产生重大联邦立法。
• 人工智能基础设施和数据中心的政策不确定性可能上升，但资本支出周期和行业基本面大体应保持完好。
• 僵局加大政府停摆和2027年债务上限对峙的风险，但国防支出可能仍是例外。

对应原文证据

1. With Democrats expected to take control of the US House and Republicans likely to retain the Senate, the 2026 midterms are unlikely to produce major policy changes. · 2026
2. While the election could still have incremental effects on select sectors, the more important signal for investors is that US political and policy volatility will likely remain elevated, setting the stage for potentially larger market-moving shifts during the 2028 presidential election cycle. · 2028
3. A traditional model using presidential approval ratings to forecast congressional outcomes would imply a near 40-seat loss for Republicans in the House of Representatives.