oct 26 新兴市场债券展望 FI 观点

关键论点

• 能源冲击规模较小，且没有后封锁时期的过剩需求，因此通胀广泛持续回归并非基准情景。
• 更高的实际利率和恢复的信誉使许多新兴市场央行有空间暂停或放缓降息，收紧仅限于个别国家。
• 较高的初始收益率支撑利差收益并对冲温和的市值损失；本币债券提供利差与最终久期上行的最佳组合。
• 硬通货利差偏窄限制进一步压缩空间，美国久期和个券国别选择成为主要回报驱动因素。

对应原文证据

1. 1 Insights Emerging markets: Inflation, central banks, and near-term debt outlook A smaller shock, stronger policy buffers, and a carry-led opportunity • A limited inflation shock: Notwithstanding broad price pressures, the energy shock has been smaller than in2021–2022. · 2022
2. Our base case remains atemporary increase inheadline inflation, with persistent pressure more likely where currencies, wages, or fiscal policy amplify the shock.
3. The most resilient markets should be those where inflation expectations remain stable, foreign exchange reserves are adequate, and fiscal policy isdisciplined.