Aug 26 emd monthly commentary

关键论点

• 2026年前八个月，短久期新兴市场硬通货债券跑赢长久期同类，8月进一步强化。
• 核心利率仍是回报主导因素；美国期限溢价上升、财政担忧及AI相关供给增加对长久期债券拖累更大，硬通货利差保持坚挺。
• 本币债票息支撑明显，利息收入（+0.46%）超过本地收益率上行带来的价格损失（-0.23%）。
• 新兴市场货币政策分化：亚洲偏鹰，菲律宾加息；匈牙利和巴西降息。

对应原文证据

1. Meanwhile, a tentative Iran–Oman deal to share revenues from Strait of Hormuz tolls raised hopes that the waterway could reopen and helped keep oil prices in check.
2. At the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium, Chair Kevin Warsh discussed longer-term themes, including artificial intelligence, and affirmed a shift away from forward guidance on future Fed moves.
3. He maintained the Fed’s commitment to returning above-target inflation to 2%.