5%利率：当盈利跑赢贴现率

关键论点

• 标普500远期市盈率与10年期实际国债收益率的关系依然成立；实际收益率上升之际，估值倍数从约23倍降至约19倍。
• 股市的韧性反映的是远期盈利预期走强，而非投资者对更高贴现率的漠视。
• 名义GDP增速接近5%至6%、国债收益率迈向5%，与2000年代中期相似，是不同于2010年代的名义增长环境。
• 应少关注利率的绝对水平，多关注利率与盈利之间的相互作用。

对应原文证据

1. Investors today are willing to pay less for each dollar of future earnings than they were when real borrowing costs were substantially lower.
2. Forward earnings growth expectations for the S&P 500 have been impressive over the past year, reflecting a combination of stronger corporate profitability and improving revenue trends.
3. A reacceleration in inflation, a further rise in real interest rates, softer economic growth, or a moderation in the AI-driven investment cycle could all challenge the earnings outlook.