美国利率周报 20260814

关键论点

• AI通胀预测的均方误差低于经济学家，但存在数据泄漏，在真正的样本外测试中准确度较低。
• 美联储暂停储备管理购买并非长期资产负债表计划的信号；储备金稳定在约3万亿美元。
• 由于通胀缓解和劳动力数据疲软，倾向于5s30s陡化，同时长端收益率易受财政和AI资本支出带来的供应风险影响。
• 较低的预期波动性和稳健的风险情绪短期内利好互换利差。
• 7月通胀数据是朝着正确方向迈出的一步，但鹰派美联储言论要求采取‘观望’态度。
• 7月工业生产预计环比增长0.3%。
• FOMC会议纪要可能揭示成员对通胀忍耐程度的细节。
• 30年期互换利差有追赶空间，因为5年和10年接近高位。

对应原文证据

1. The Fed temporarily paused its reserve management purchases. We do not believe this is an indication of its longer-term balance sheet plans. Bank reserves have held steady around $3trn since June and softer overnight funding rates largely reflect reduced demand for financing rather than an oversupply of liquidity. · short_term
2. Favor 5s30s steepeners as easing inflation and softer labor data support belly, while long-end yields remain vulnerable to fiscal and AI capex led supply risks. · medium_term
3. Lower expected volatility and a robust risk sentiment favors swap spreads as carry should be helped in the short term. · short_term